Exxon earnings: third quarter 2026

The quarter in brief

Exxon earned $15.4 billion in the third quarter of 2026. That is more than twice the $7.5 billion of a year earlier and about 6% more than in the spring.¹ Most of the lift came from refining, where the gap between what crude oil costs and what the fuels made from it sell for widened sharply. The company's benchmark refining margin was $50.3 a barrel, against $29.0 in the second quarter.¹

Its oil and gas production business earned less than in the spring as oil prices eased, and chemicals had a weak quarter.¹ Cash poured in all the same. Net debt, meaning borrowings minus cash, fell to $22.1 billion at the end of September, and the company set out a plan for large share buybacks next year.¹

The figures, as the company printed them

Against what analysts expected

The average forecast of six analysts was earnings per share of $3.90.² Earnings per share are net income divided by the number of shares. Exxon reported $3.72, about 5% below that forecast. On its own adjusted measure, which strips out one-off items and timing effects, it earned $4.23, about 8% above.¹ Whether the quarter came in above or below what analysts expected therefore depends on which figure you use.

Most of the gap between the two is $2.5 billion of what the company calls timing effects. These are oil and gas contracts not yet settled, valued at quarter-end prices, which it expects to unwind later.¹ Unusually, the adjusted figure is the higher one here, so the reported number is being held down rather than the adjusted one flattering the result. The reported figure also includes a $675 million gain from selling assets, which the company counts among its one-off items.¹

What the company expects

Exxon's one firm figure about the future is for buybacks. It says it plans to buy back $20 billion of its own shares in 2027, provided market conditions are reasonable.¹ It works out at $5 billion a quarter, close to the $5.1 billion it spent on buybacks this quarter, so it would need cash to keep arriving at something like today's pace.¹

On spending for lower-emission projects, it says only that its plans rest on its corporate plan. Actual levels, it says, will depend on the opportunities available and on public policy support.¹

The chief executive frames the outlook in words rather than numbers. He says the company is positioned to keep supplying energy and products through changing markets. He also describes the earnings gains as lasting, not merely the product of favourable prices and margins.¹

The strong points

Profit rose on both comparisons: $15.4 billion against $7.5 billion a year earlier and $14.5 billion in the spring, so it was not one lucky quarter set against a weak base.¹ Earnings per share rose faster still, from $1.76 a year earlier to $3.72, partly because buybacks cut the average number of shares from 4,285 million to 4,140 million.¹

Refining and fuels was the engine. On the company's adjusted measure, profit in this business more than doubled from the second quarter to $9.1 billion, over half of the $17.5 billion total.¹ Higher margins did most of the work, but the plants helped too: the volume of crude run through its refineries rose about 4.9% from the spring, with Asia Pacific up most.¹ That matters because Exxon is usually thought of as an oil producer. This quarter, turning crude into fuel earned more than pumping it out of the ground.

Free cash flow, the cash left after running the business and investing in it, was $19.1 billion in the quarter. Over nine months it reached $39.0 billion, nearly double the $20.6 billion of a year earlier.¹ That cash did not come from cutting investment, which was steady at $7.0 billion in the quarter.¹ It paid for $9.4 billion of dividends and buybacks with about half left over, and it helped bring long-term debt down to $29.7 billion from $34.2 billion at the end of 2025.¹ The quarterly dividend is rising to $1.07 a share from $1.03.¹ Part of the cash, $2.2 billion, came from the timing of bills and payments, which can reverse.¹

The weak points

Oil and gas production is the biggest business over the nine months, but its adjusted profit fell about a fifth from the second quarter, to $7.3 billion.¹ The cause was price rather than volume. Brent oil averaged $97.01 a barrel against $104.52, and Exxon's share of Guyana's output was reduced earlier than planned, while daily production barely moved.¹ This is the part of the company most exposed to the oil price, and it went backwards even in a quarter when the company as a whole earned more.

Over nine months, total oil and gas output averaged 4,534 thousand barrels of oil equivalent a day, a measure that counts gas in terms of the oil it matches for energy. That is about 2.5% below the 4,651 thousand of a year earlier, even though the chief executive says production is increasing.¹ Growth is real in places: US oil and liquids output rose about 10%. But gas output in Asia fell by about 44%, and volumes were lost in the Middle East.¹ For now, the growth story the company tells is not yet visible in its totals.

Chemicals' adjusted profit fell to $725 million from $1.2 billion in the second quarter.¹ It sold about 9% more in the quarter, but narrower margins more than cancelled that out.¹ Over the year, volumes are also down: 14,717 thousand tonnes of chemicals sold so far against 15,560 thousand a year ago.¹ This business is not sharing in the refining windfall.

What to watch

The first signal is the refining margin itself, together with stockpiles of diesel and petrol. Fuel inventories are the clearest test of whether this quarter's margin reflects a real shortage or a passing squeeze: a genuine shortage keeps stocks low, while a squeeze fades as refiners run harder and tanks refill. If stocks stay tight and the gap between crude and fuel prices holds, refining's windfall is lasting. If stockpiles rebuild and that gap narrows back towards the spring margin, the business that carried this quarter loses most of its lift.

The second is output from Guyana and the Permian, the two areas the company points to for growth.¹ What would settle it is growth there large enough to cover the losses in Asian gas and the Middle East and lift total daily output back above the 4,651 thousand barrels of oil equivalent of a year earlier.¹ The next results are a check on both trends, not the answer to either.

Our verdict on the quarter

In all, a strong report. Profit and free cash flow grew strongly from a year ago and debt fell.¹ On its adjusted measure, the one the analysts' average forecasts, earnings per share came in about 8% above that forecast; the reported figure, held down by contracts not yet settled, came in below it.¹² Exxon gave no forecast of its own for sales or profit to judge the quarter against. The profit itself rests largely on an unusually wide refining margin, with production and chemicals going the other way, so the quarter shows more about the fuel market Exxon sold into than about growth in the businesses it runs.

Notes

1. Exxon's results release, 30 October 2026: sec.gov. ↩
2. Nasdaq's earnings calendar, 30 October 2026. ↩