Vistra earnings: third quarter 2026

Vistra, one of the largest power producers and electricity sellers in the United States, had a much better third quarter of 2026 than a year earlier. Sales rose by more than a quarter to $6,347 million. Its own measure of core profit, which strips out one-off items, grew about 50% to $2,378 million, led by its Texas business. Reported net income was $1,140 million, but that figure includes a $559 million paper gain on contracts that lock in future prices and a $269 million charge for written-down assets. The cash story was strong too: over nine months, cash left after investment rose to about $2 billion. Vistra narrowed its forecast for this year towards the upper end, gave its first full forecast for 2027 and added $1.5 billion to its share buybacks. ¹

Against what analysts expected

Analysts on average expected earnings per share of $2.94 for the quarter, according to Nasdaq's earnings calendar. ¹²

The strong points

• Vistra's own measure of core profit, which leaves out one-off gains and charges, grew about 50% from a year earlier to $2,378 million. ¹
• Over the first nine months, the cash left after running the business and investing in it was about $2,011 million, up from about $722 million a year earlier. ¹
• Texas drove the quarter, with its profit before one-off items rising to $1,227 million from $784 million a year earlier. ¹

The weak points

• Soon after the quarter ended, buying Cogentrix Energy and buying back $1 billion of preferred shares cut Vistra's cushion of cash and credit to about $5.4 billion. ¹
• Its business selling electricity to homes and companies improved in the quarter but is still behind over nine months, at $939 million against $977 million a year earlier. ¹

What the company expects

• Vistra narrowed its 2026 forecast for core profit to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion, from $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion before, moving the range towards its upper end. ¹
• For 2027, Vistra gave its first full forecast for core profit, $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion, above the $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion it had sketched a quarter ago. ¹

Our verdict on the quarter

A strong report. Core profit grew about 50% and cash flow nearly tripled over nine months, while Vistra kept its forecast for the year and narrowed it towards the upper end, so in general a strong report.

The results as published

• The results release itself
• The filing it came with (SEC)
• The previous results, for what it forecast then

Notes

1. Vistra's results release, 6 November 2026: sec.gov. ↩
2. Nasdaq's earnings calendar, 6 November 2026. ↩